Tuesday, 10 November 2009

Homework: peak oil theory


The peak oil is the time when price of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the whole rate of production declines rapidly.But the peak oil also can be reached when consumer's demand is more than oil supplied.The peak oil will also rise petrol prices.
And as in every event all the time we have optimists and pessemists.
Optimists think that peak oil theorists often underestimate the amount of oil reserves. At the same time they argue that new technologies should be improved to create new oil fields and extract oil from currently inaccessible prices.The rise in oil prices will only serve to increase the return from investing in new technology. It is argued that the current rise in oil prices has not yet been reflected in investment decisions.There is a significant time late between oil prices and investment; the current high oil prices should lead to a boom in oil investment in the near future.
Pessemists or realists,as they call themselves argue that tipping point has already been reached. if it occurs soon the rise in prices will cause an incredible problem in economical situation all over tje world.If this scenario were likely to happen it suggests there is market failure in the development of new technologies and therefore requires government intervention to speed new technologies. If,however, oil prices will stabilise it gives hope to those who believe free markets can develop the necessary technology.
It is worth noting that in 1999, the Economist, like many other economists and oil specialists predicted that oil supplies were plentiful and 'dirt cheap' oil would continue for the foreseeable future.The longer high oil prices are sustained, the more importance people will attach to peak oil theories.

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